India and CPEC

A CHALLENGE AND AN OPPURTUNITY

                A year and a half after China and Pakistan announced plans for an Economic Corridor , the CPEC to connect “Kashgar to Gwadar “, the two countries operationalised the trade route this week, with the first shipment moving to Gwadar port and on to the Gulf and Africa. Many of the infrastructure and energy projects that are part of CPEC, worth and estimated $46 billion, are already under way. Of this $35-38 billion is committed in the energy sector, in gas, coal and solar energy across Pakistan, with the combined expected capacity crossing 10,000 MW. This is roughly double the current shortfall the country experiences. In addition, the 3,000- km rail and road way project is expected to generate 700,000 jobs by2030. While Pakistan sees CPEC as a game changer, there are many challenges, with critics questioning the project’s viability, and some accusing China of launching a second “East India Company “.There are the security challenges too, especially in the Western areas near the key Gwadar port, where militants ranging for Baloch nationalists to the Taliban and the Islamic state have carried out the attack. Systemic challenges include project delays in the CPEC’s first year, which the World Bank warns could prove to be an impediment to Pakistan’s overall growth. Pakistan-India tensions, unless contained, too could endanger sectors of the project where Pakistani troops are engaged in providing security. Finally, the economic slowdown in China and the political instability in Pakistan could impact the project’s future as well.

                 However, these internal considerations for Pakistan should not blur the bigger picture of India: CPEC is now a reality. In the past India’s reaction to the project, announced a few weeks before Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to China in 2015, had turned from dismissal and disdain to disapproval and then to outright opposition. India even raised concern over projects in disputed Gilgit Baltistan at the UN General assembly. Not only has the project gone ahead despite the objections , but China now sees CPEC as a physical link between its one belt, one road (OBOR) project and the mari time silk route (MSR).India has refuse to be a part of either . That Sreelanka, Bangladhes and Afganistan are all on board the OBOR and the MSR should give India pause. It is important for Delhi to also take a closer look at the security implications of the China-Pakistan clinch that is fast drawing in Russia in the north, all the way of Arabian Sea, while China plans a floating naval base off Gwadar.